Frases de William Poundstone (33 citas)

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William Poundstone: Frases en inglés

“There were many at Bell Labs and MIT who compared Shannon's insight to Einstein's. Others found that comparison unfair - unfair to Shannon.”

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William Poundstone

Part One, Entropy, Claude Shannon, p. 15
Fortune's Formula (2005)

“The story of the Kelly system is a story of secrets - or if you prefer, a story of entropy.”

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William Poundstone

Part One, Entropy, Minus Sign, p. 76
Fortune's Formula (2005)

“Expectation is a statistical fiction, like having 2.5 children.”

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William Poundstone

Part One, Entropy, Gamblers Ruin, p. 50
Fortune's Formula (2005)

“Far from preventing gambler's ruin, martingale accelerates it.”

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William Poundstone

Part One, Entropy, Gamblers Ruin, p. 52
Fortune's Formula (2005)

“To hedge the bets he made every working day, Meriwether kept a set of rosary beads in his briefcase.”

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William Poundstone

Part Six, Blowing Up, Martingale Man, p. 278
Fortune's Formula (2005)

“The more improbable the message, the less "compressible" it is, and the more bandwidth it requires. This is Shannon's point: the essence is its improbability.”

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William Poundstone

Part One, Entropy, Randomness, Disorder, Uncertainty, p. 57
Fortune's Formula (2005)

“Bernoulli's real contribution was to coin a word. The word has been translated into English as "utility". It describes this subjective value people place on money.”

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William Poundstone

Part Four, St. Petersburg Wager, Daniel Bernoulli, p. 184
Fortune's Formula (2005)

“There is a deep connection between Bernoulli's dictum and John Kelly's 1956 publication. It turns out that Kelly's prescription can be restated as this simple rule: When faced with a choice of wagers or investments, choose the one with the highest geometric means of outcomes.”

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William Poundstone

Part Four, St. Petersburg Wager, Natures Admonition To Avoid The Dice, p. 191
Fortune's Formula (2005)

“Samuelson, however, hedged his personal bets - by putting some of his own money in Berkshire Hathaway.”

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William Poundstone

Part Three, Arbitrage, The Random Walk Cosa Nostra, p. 125
Fortune's Formula (2005)

“Are there any mythical beasts which aren't simple pastiches of nature? Centaurs, minotaurs, unicorns, griffons, chimeras, sphinxes, manticores, and the like don't speak well for the human imagination. None is as novel as a kangaroo or starfish.”

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William Poundstone

Fuente: Labyrinths of Reason (1988), Chapter 1: "Paradox", p. 11

“At a bare minimum, understanding entails being able to detect an internal contradiction: a paradox.”

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William Poundstone

Fuente: Labyrinths of Reason (1988), Chapter 1: "Paradox", p. 21

“The assumption that anything true is knowable is the grandfather of paradoxes.”

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William Poundstone

Fuente: Labyrinths of Reason (1988), Chapter 12: "Omniscience", p. 260

“The best strategy is one that offers the highest compound return consistent with no risk of going broke.”

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William Poundstone

Part One, Entropy, Private Wire, p. 69
Fortune's Formula (2005)

“The best paradoxes raise questions about what kinds of contradictions can occur—what species of impossibilities are possible.”

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William Poundstone

Fuente: Labyrinths of Reason (1988), Chapter 1: "Paradox", p. 19

“Your second ducat, like your second million, is never quite as sweet.”

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William Poundstone

Part Four, St. Petersburg Wager, Daniel Bernoulli, p. 186
Fortune's Formula (2005)

“The ultimate compound return rate is acutely sensitive to fat tails.”

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William Poundstone

Part Six, Blowing Up, Survival Motive, p. 297
Fortune's Formula (2005)

“Use "entropy" and you can never lose a debate, von Neumann told Shannon - because no one really knows what "entropy" is.”

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William Poundstone

Part One, Entropy, Randomness, Disorder, Uncertainty, p. 57
Fortune's Formula (2005)

“Shannon's most radical insight was that meaning was irrelevant.”

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William Poundstone

Part One, Entropy, Randomness, Disorder, Uncertainty, p. 55
Fortune's Formula (2005)

“The engine driving the Kelly system is the "law of large numbers." In a 1713 treatise on probability, Swiss mathematician Jakob Bernoulli propounded a law that has been misunderstood by gamblers (and investors) ever since.”

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William Poundstone

Part Two, Blackjack, The Kelly Criterion Under The Hood, p. 102
Fortune's Formula (2005)

“In real conversations, we are always trying to outguess each other.”

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William Poundstone

Part One, Entropy, Randomness, Disorder, Uncertainty, p. 56
Fortune's Formula (2005)

“Simple rules can have complex consequences. This simple rule has such a wealth of implications that it is worth examining in detail. It is the far from self-evident guiding principle of reductionism and of most modern investigations into cosmic complexity. Reductionism will not be truly successful until physicists and cosmologists demonstrate that the large-scale phenomena of the world arise from fundamental physics alone. This lofty goal is still out of reach. There is uncertainty not only in how physics generates the structures of our world but also in what the truly fundamental rules of physics are.”

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William Poundstone

The Recursive Universe (1985), p. 31

“"Average" isn't so hot at the race track given those steep track takes. "Average" is pretty decent for stocks, something like 6 percent above the inflation rate. For a buy-and -hold investor, commissions and taxes are small.”

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William Poundstone

Part Three, Arbitrage, This Is Not the Time To Buy Stocks, p. 134
Fortune's Formula (2005)

“The dealer now theorized that Thorp was memorizing the entire deck. He knew exactly which cards remained in the deck and bet accordingly.
Thorp said it was impossible for any one to do that.”

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William Poundstone

Part Two, Blackjack, More Trouble Than an $18 Dollar Whore, p. 96 (See Also: Stu Ungar Section; Blackjack)
Fortune's Formula (2005)

“Paradox is thus a much deeper and universal concept than the ancients would have dreamed. Rather than an oddity, it is a mainstay of the philosophy of science.”

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William Poundstone

Fuente: Labyrinths of Reason (1988), Chapter 1: "Paradox", p. 23

“The problem with winning at blackjack and sports betting is that sooner or later a big guy in a suit tells you to leave.”

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William Poundstone

Part Seven, Signal and Noise, Hong Kong Syndicate, p. 323
Fortune's Formula (2005)

“Carl Friedrich Gauss, often rated the greatest mathematician of all time, played the market. On a salary of 1,000 thalers a year, Euler left an estate of 170,587 thalers in cash and securities. Nothing is known of Gauss's investment methods.”

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William Poundstone

Part Three, Arbitrage, This Is Not the Time To Buy Stocks, p. 132
Fortune's Formula (2005)

“For reasons mathematical, psychological, and sociological, it is a good idea to use a money management system that is relatively forgiving of estimation errors.”

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William Poundstone

Part Six, Blowing Up, Survival Motive, p. 296-297
Fortune's Formula (2005)

“From Adam Smith through John Maynard Keynes, economics had been mostly talk. At Harvard economics was talk. At MIT, Samuelson made it math.”

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William Poundstone

Part Three, Arbitrage, Paul Samuelson, p. 117
Fortune's Formula (2005)

“In American culture the coin toss is the paradigm of the random event. A coin toss decides who kicks off the Super Bowl. Looked at another way, a coin toss is not random at all. It is physics.”

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William Poundstone

Part One, Entropy, Toy Room, p. 46
Fortune's Formula (2005)

“A bit is worth 10,000 basis points.”

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William Poundstone

Part One, Entropy, Private Wire, p. 75
Fortune's Formula (2005)

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